Stock Market Outlook for the Week 26th to 30th April 2021, Nifty, Bank Nifty Prediction and Options Chain Analysis, Stocks on Radar, Breakout Stocks for Investment, Covid – 19 Outbreak and its effect on stock market, whether stock market will crash?
Second Wave of Covid-19 is on Peak In India
As you all are aware that the Covid -19 second wave is on peak in India and on 24th April morning India reported highest cases of 3.46 lakh in a single day while deaths hit a new record of 2600. The spread of Covid -19 is on peak and India recorded almost 10 lakh cases in past 3 days which is highly alarming. Almost all ICU beds at Hospitals in Delhi, Maharashtra and major cities are fully occupied in past 4-5 days. Oxygen supply and crisis is heard in almost all major hospitals and more over the second wave is badly affecting and Oxygen support system is essential to save the lives of peoples. Remdesivir injection is most important in for the treatment of Covid-19 patients and its shortage is also being discussed however the manufacturing is expect to be ramp up at high scale. Russia offers oxygen and Remdesivir supply to India and imports are likely to begin in next 10-15 days. According to the experts the Covid -19 wave – 2 is at peak in Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Delhi and other states also likely to come on peak by May 15th however Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Delhi are almost at the peak so graph may come down in few weeks. Experts says that the speed of Covid-19 wave -2 is very high so it will be rise at it’s peak between 15th to 20th May and the speed it has risen at the same speed it will blow off. Govt vaccination drive is on and from May 1st the vaccination will be allowed above 18 years and the production capacity also ramp up by the vaccine manufactures, Sputnik – V Russian vaccine was given emergency approval and Dr. Reddy’s will manufacture and supply the vaccines in India. The vaccine is expected in the market in the month of May. Pfizer vaccine is also expected to be come in markets and Pfizer offered vaccine to Indian Govt at not for profit price. So vaccination drive will help to break the chain in Indian.
Biden administration has come under intense pressure from various agencies including the powerful US Chamber of Commerce, lawmakers and others for shipment of AstraZeneca and other vaccines to India. So we can expect some positive news infront of vaccine supplies from US- Biden Administration.
In India so far total 13.54 crores of peoples are vaccinated and about 30-32 lakh peoples are getting vaccinated on daily basis.
In view of the Covid-19 second wave spread with high rate and affecting the large population and mortality rate also increased so all are requested to follow the preventive measures and guidelines issued by the Govt authorities and use mask, maintain social distancing and unless and until necessary don’t come out of home, stay at home stay safe.
Now coming back to the stock market we have discussed the pandemic situation as the same is directly related to the stock markets. Indian Stock Markets and Global Stock Markets we have seen disparity in past couple of days & this is mainly because of the rising Covid -19 cases and fear of lock down. Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Delhi have already announced lock down and we may expect the lock down in some other states also in the coming week’s time. So the situation might be expected to worsen in the coming days/ weeks however stock market is almost discounted the same and corrected from it’s peak and might signal bottoming out in upcoming weeks however we may likely to see more volatility in the week ahead. We will discuss about the market prediction on technical charts and stocks which are likely to give good movement in the coming days.
Last week we have presented below data and we have compared the Indian Stock Markets with US stock markets from its all time high and you can have a quick look on the same.
Indian Stock Market Performance: –
| Benchmark Indices | High (All time high recorded in Feb’21 | Current Level (Close Price 16.04.21) | % Up (+) or Down (-) |
| Nifty 50 Index | 15431 | 14671 | -4.92% |
| Sensex | 52516 | 48832 | -7.01% |
| Banknifty | 37708 | 31977 | -15.20% |
US Stock Market Performance : –
| Benchmark Indices | High (All time high recorded in Feb’21 | Current Level (Close Price 16.04.21) | % Up (+) or Down (-) |
| Dow Jones | 32009 | 34200 | +6.8% |
| Nasdaq | 13879 | 14042 | +1.17% |
| S&P 500 | 3950 | 4185 | +5.95% |
Indian Stock Market is having disparity with Global markets and which may come to an end as we all know during the high peak of Covid-19 US market were at its peak and made all time highs. US Govt also taken strong steps to keep the economy well ahead and announced various packages to the industry and also US Fed signaled no rate hike for almost a year.
Nifty Overview, Nifty Prediction for Next Week (26th to 30th April 2021)
Last week we have seen stiff fall in nifty with gap down opening made a low of 14151 and from week lows market recovered a bit however closed down to 14341 with a fall of 276 points (1.89% lower) from the previous week close.
Let’s have a look at above Technical Charts of Nifty, Form the charts, we can predict that Nifty might have formed a base at 14250-14300 zone, however fall towards 14000 cannot be denied and resistance now shifted at 14760 levels. As discussed above on Covid-19 outbreak market might discounting the Covid-19 wave -2 and we can expect market to consolidate with high volatility or might give breakout or breakdown in the upcoming weeks. For the upcoming week 14150 to 14760 is no trade Zone or the traders can trade with the hedging strategy and better option is to wait and watch the direction of nifty.
Option Chain Data – From the Options Chain Data Analysis we can find out the Major Support at 14200 & 14000 levels, So we can expect to hold 14200 levels slip below 14000 we can see the sharp sell of towards 14000 and breach below 14000 we can see in worst case scenario 13650-13700 levels.
Key Support – 14200 & 1400
However on the resistance we can see the resistance at 14500-14600 & 14800 levels. Break above one level we can expect the next levels.
Key Resistance – 14500 & 14600
Bank Nifty Overview , Banknifty Prediction for Next Week (26th to 30th April 2021).
Banknifty however showing sign of reversal and break above 32450 may head banknifty out of the danger zone and might give good movement and in case it works in line with the same we might see the bounce in the markets.
Banknifty present close is at 31772 and support comes at 30740 however resistance comes at 32450 onc crossed 32450 we might face resistance at 33460 levels and we might consolidate or head towards higher levels. No trade zone 30740 & 32450 however traders can play with the options trade or hedging positions.
Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis
Key Support – 31000
Key Resistance at – 32000
So from the Option Chain Analysis we have to keep in mind the levels as derived from the derivative data.
Stocks to keep on Radar
TV 18 Broadcast – Look at the technical chart of TV18 Broadcast the company is expected to move towards the marked levels once cross and close above 39.10 levels. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala portfolio stock, Reliance Group Company and strong robust performance growth and strong fundamentals of the company. High Probability that the stock can move towards all the levels marked in coming months.
Gufic Biosciences – Look at the Technical chart of Gufic Bio the company is expected to move towards 170 and above – Strong Company from Small Cap Stocks
Suven Pharma – Break Out Stock , Suven Pharma Stock came out of over 3 months consolidation and now expected to head towards 768 levels in upcoming weeks.
SRF Ltd – Breakout Stock have a look at below chart of SRF, On weekly chart you can see that the stock has come out of over 3 months consolidation and we can expect the movement in stock towards 8012 levels in coming weeks.
Disclaimer : – The contents posted here are only for Educational purpose and not a buying or selling recommendations, do consult your financial advisor before taking any decision.
